Most Israelis fearless of nuclear Ahmadinejad

Posted: June 14, 2009 by Jonathan Boyko in Hezbollah, Iran, Israel, Middle East, Own Articles, Terrorism

Irans nuclear reactor in Bushehr

TEL-AVIV UNIVERSITY poll, conducted recently, shows only fifth of Israeli Jewish population believe the threat from nuclear Iran is real. Israeli daily Haaretz could barely hide the elation in the second paragraph of the news report:

The survey, commissioned by a Tel Aviv University think-tank, appeared to challenge the argument of successive Israeli governments that Iran must be denied the means to make atomic weapons lest it threaten Israel’s existence.

It is unclear how an opinion poll could prove government’s stance, based on strong intelligence reports, is wrong.

Sadly, this poll clearly illustrates a huge gape in nation’s awareness of potential danger with Iran. As I previously mentioned, on several occasions, the problem with Iran is not the prospect of it obtaining nuclear missiles – it is unlikely Iran would strike Israel with those, as such attack would be registered by many satellites as being launched within Iran, thus bringing the NATO forces and toppling of Ahmadinejad. Also, it is likely that Iranians understand that while not perfect, Israeli anti-ballistic defenses are strong, with good change of destroying a nuclear missile in mid-flight, thus avoiding a direct hit on Israel, and possibly having the impact of the weapon spread on the Arab states itself.

What is important, is to understand what would Iran do. If Ahmadinejad indeed decided to use (or allow use of) nuclear weapons against Israel, he could be expected to do it in a way he could not be blamed for such massacre. The one and only way for him to do that is to use terrorist organizations, such as HAMAS or Hizb Allah. If carried out, these organizations obviously would not take direct responsibility; a previously unknown and unheard-of group would announce its involvement in the act – to never be heard of again – while Nasrallah and Mashaal would, no doubt, glee over the attack, saying Allah punished the infidel Jews. This would be a perfect way for Iran’s President to attack Israel, without the international community, which tightly restrains itself with various laws and committees. With no one able to point the finger at the origins of the bomb in Natanz, Ahmadinejad could sleep sound.

Israel, however, should be educated about this prospect. It is bizarre to me, that Israeli politicians give long speeches about how dangerous nuclear Iran would be, without directly addressing the possible involvement – and will to involve themselves – of terrorist groups all around the Middle East and beyond. Besides the likely will of Ahmadinejad to involve himself in a nuclear attack on Israel, it is unclear if he would be able to secure the facilities enough to protect the weapons from Hizb Allah and the likes. While overall weak, Hassan Nasrallah’s terror group achieved certain goals and planted several spies within Israel – where espionage agencies are overall good. In Iran, where Hizb Allah agent would find it much easier blending in, WMDs could be stolen, given enough determination and patience.

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