As time passes, nothing changes

Posted: August 5, 2009 by Jonathan Boyko in Anti-Israel, Hezbollah, Iran, Israel, Middle East, Own Articles, Terrorism, US

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has every reason to be happy

WITH ALL THE calamity over the riots in Iran, after seemingly falsified election of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as Iran’s president, the commentators – some of whom promised us as much as a regime change – are quiet now. For weeks, the talking heads promoted the idea that the protestors would bring Ahmadinejad down. Yet, as time passed, he again took the throne. The US administration – mostly silent on the matter – “acknowledged” Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as Iran’s President, symbolically refusing to congratulate him on the victory. The country that let Iran down decades ago, does it again. No doubt, however, US’ interests are in play, and Barack Obama vigorously protects those. We should hand it to him – he seems to do a good job protecting American interests overseas, at least in the short run.

Here Israel comes into play. Now firmly seated in his chair, surrounded by people ordering soldiers to shoot people on the streets, Ahmadinejad can resume his support for radical organizations vowing to destroy the Jewish state. According to recent data, Hizb Allah, whom Israeli army nearly crushed during the 2006 Second Lebanon War, has stockpiled nearly 40,000 rockets under UNIFIL’s nose, some of them able to reach Israel’s Gush Dan area in general and Tel Aviv in particular. Reports say Nasrallah trains his men (and, probably, some women) to use longer-range missiles to attack Israel’s economic capital.

Tel Aviv bears particular significance for the ‘freedom fighters’. As the Arab (and parts of the Western) world does not recognize Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, they view Tel Aviv as one instead. Thus, if Nasrallah’s weapons would reach this city, it would be, no doubt, proclaimed as an enormous victory for his terrorist group. Such an act could seriously damage morale of Israeli civilians, bring great gains to Arab morale and would be viewed as a victory for Hizb Allah, no matter the outcome.

During the 2006 war, Nasrallah’s men attempted to fire several long-range rockets, but they were detected by Israeli spy drones and destroyed on the ground. Several missiles, however, did manage to land somewhat deep within Israeli territory. Lebanese sheikh makes it his goal to strike deeper – much deeper.

Now, once again, he has the support. With financial and military support from Iran assured for at least another several years, Lebanese terrorists would have no lack of resources. In my opinion, within several years we would see another attack be Hizb Allah. You do not store dozens of thousands of non-guided, imprecise rockets for matters of defense. No doubt, Hizb Allah learned its lesson – it managed to keep nearly a million Israelis in bomb shelters for weeks. This time around, they would have few more cards up their AK-47 bearing sleeve.

It gets even worse for Israel. With US silent, one of the few weapons against tyrannical regimes the Western world has is sanctions and economic restrictions. Yet, it seems even those crumble under constant pressure from the liberals around the world to forget the horrors of the past (and the present) and concentrate on peace. It is probably his urge that made UK officials to support signing of a Syria-EU deal which would boost Syria’s economy. Supporting terror is no big deal for the Europeans, it seems. Somebody, bring them some weed and let’s sing Kumbaya together.

ALL THESE POINT lead to one conclusion – Israel has no choice but to look for new friends, outside of Europe and North America. The mission would be tough, but strengthening ties with India could help with that. It seems that Israel should turn its gaze towards Asia, and the sooner – the better.

A possible player could be China. The communist country is being looked up to by many struggling nations as a source of economic prosperity. Moreover, the Chinese usually keep themselves out of politics, focusing on economy (and sometimes, military) instead. Israel has one significant product to offer, one it has in excess – technology. Few others can present China with such an opportunity. Surely, Israel is not the only possible supplier of hi-tech brains and hardware, but it is one of the few capable of such a high level. Of course, there is Taiwan. In recent months, ties between the two strengthened immensely, with trade and passenger routes now officially open directly between the two countries. Taiwan can offer much in domestic technology, such as electronic and green power production units. It lacks, however, something Chinese crave almost as much as seeing the island back under China flag – advanced military expertise. Which is something Israel could offer – and plenty of it.

Those deliberations are currently theoretical at best. Israel would not be able to establish direct communications and trade routes with China without disassociating itself from the USA first. The groundwork should be laid, however. The Jewish state has no time to spare, with the villains on its very doorstep. It is up to Benjamin Netanyahu and his government to decided when such bold steps should be taken, and to understand, that although US has much leverage against Israel, latter has much leverage on the former as well. It would be Obama’s worst nightmare if one day Israel officially announces it would no longer accept US aid and would act without considering US intentions first.

Sadly, modern politicians have no gut to make bold moves. In order to make those, they would have to put the people first. Most of them, though, have their careers and comfortable chairs take precedence.

  1. تغییر برای ایران says:

    دکتر غلط کرد با هفت جد و آبادش
    بی خود نیست از قدیم گفته اند آنها که خوابند را می توان بیدار کرد اما آنها که خود را به خواب زده اند هرگز

  2. I don’t know, mate. Israel and India signed few very important, large-scale defense contracts in past years. Published reports say relations between Israel and India get warmer.

    It is probably true that India would seek most defense technology within the US or Russia. However, Israel and those giants operate in separate spaces. US and Russia sell large volume of defensive technology – dozens of fighter aircraft, thousands of rifles. Israel sells smaller doses of different technology – air reconnaissance, missile defense, etc.

  3. We know that India & China are in desperate needs for military Hi-techs but sorry pal, you are not gonna get it from Israel. It is strategically seems improbable Israel tie with India and China.

    India has better opportunity to channel with the US and get what they want through them.

  4. ARSHIA says:

    ما بيشماريم اون موقعي كه دكترتون تو بسيج داشت سيب زميني مي خورد مير حسين موسوي نخست وزير بود . از صندوق امام هزينه كنيد دكتر قلابيتونو ببريد حموم…

  5. م.م says:

    اون موقعی که م.م داشت در خیالات خویشتن سفر می نمود، دکتر اینجور به همه علامت میداد.
    دمش گرم.

  6. ivarfjeld says:

    Dear Jonathan.

    Your faith in India has a positive side and a negative side. India is one of the few nations on Earth, that has hardly persecuted Jews. On the negative side, India is one of the most pro-Palestinian state. In the Indian view Judea and Samaria is Arab land. Last year, the Indian Government gave Abbas a prime property in New Delhi to build a «Palestinian Embassy». So India is one of the first nations to recognize a statehood which is a complete falsehood.

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